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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 15-45 min | 2-4 h | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 2-6 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Root causeSafetyIncident | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |