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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Operations Failure Mode and Effects Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 15-45 min | 10-20 min daily | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 1 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | FMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause |