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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Operations PDCA Cycle |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1 h bis mehrere Wochen | 15-45 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | Continuous improvementLeanExperiments | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |