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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 45-90 min | 1-5 Tage | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-6 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |