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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-5 Tage | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 4-12 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |