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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  DevOps Incident Timeline Analysis |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For an incident with an unclear sequence, the method makes the timeline precisely visible. It separates perception, reaction, and delay so cause and effect become more clearly readable. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 60-180 min | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 3-10 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Incident Timeline, Evidence Log, Delay Analysis, Improvement Actions | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | IncidentTimelineSite Reliability Engineering | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |