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Criterion
Paper illustration for NoEstimates.
Agile
NoEstimates
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules.When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighMedium
Timedifferent
laufend15-60 min1-4 Wochen45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-122-91-62-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing RulesIdeal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity CaveatsExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summaryAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationForecastingFlow
EstimationEffortAgile
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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