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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Growth Growth Experiment |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When growth ideas surface quickly, the temptation to build immediately instead of learning is high. A Growth Experiment frames an assumption so target group, lever, and measurement are clear before the first deployment. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-2 Wochen | 45-60 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-6 | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Experiment card, Result summary, Next bet | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | MarketingGrowthExperimentsLearning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |