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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 2-4 h | 1-4 Wochen | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy |