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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 60-120 min | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |