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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 60-120 min | Half day | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 2-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |