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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting |