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Criterion
Paper illustration for NoEstimates.
Agile
NoEstimates
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Purposedifferent
When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.
Complexitysame
MediumMediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
laufend60-120 min45-60 min1-2 Wochen pro Iteration
Participantsdifferent
2-122-82-82-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing RulesConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report
Tagsno overlap
EstimationForecastingFlow
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
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