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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationExpertsForecasting |