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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 60-180 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 6-30 Experten | 4-20 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |