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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Agile Bucket System |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 30-90 min | 60-120 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 3-12 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |