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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 45-60 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |