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| Criterion |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Pretotyping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | Pretotyping clarifies whether a customer problem and solution idea create enough real demand. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence, and captures the result as a pretotyping sketch, test setup, and conversion data. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 1-5 Tage | Stunden bis wenige Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-12 | Nutzertraffic | 1-4 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Pretotyping sketch, Test setup, Conversion data, Go or no-go decision |
Tagsno overlap | LeanStartupValidationMVP | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationDemandMVP |