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| Criterion |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-12 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | LeanStartupValidationMVP | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |