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Criterion
Paper illustration of Lean Startup with its method-specific working model.
Innovation
Lean Startup
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus15-45 min1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-81-8Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decisionPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
LeanStartupValidationMVP
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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