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| Criterion |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 15-45 min | 15-60 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-9 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | LeanStartupValidationMVP | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortAgile | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |