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| Criterion |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 2-4 h | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | LeanStartupValidationMVP | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ChangeDecisionStrategy |