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| Criterion |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | LeanStartupValidationMVP | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | SensemakingDecisionRationale |