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| Criterion |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 1-4 Wochen | 60-180 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 4-20 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | LeanStartupValidationMVP | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |