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| Criterion |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 45-90 min | 20–45 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | LeanStartupValidationMVP | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |