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| Criterion |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 10-30 min je Item | laufend | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-6 | 1-8 | 2-12 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |