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| Criterion |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 20-45 min | 60-120 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-6 | 1-10 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |