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Criterion
Paper illustration of a Lean Canvas with nine fields, notes, and one highlighted learning risk.
Product Strategy
Lean Canvas
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
45-90 min2-4 h2-6 h45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
1-62-63-82-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment BacklogBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action BacklogFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control ActionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model
Root causeSafetyIncident
RiskRoot causeSafety
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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