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Criterion
Paper illustration of a branching impact map with a Why goal at the root, actor circles, How behavior changes and What options.
Product Strategy
Impact Mapping
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighLow
Timedifferent
45-90 min20–45 min0.5-2 Tage45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-8Small cross-functional group4-122-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery OptionsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logScenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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