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| Criterion |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |