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Criterion
Paper illustration of a branching impact map with a Why goal at the root, actor circles, How behavior changes and What options.
Product Strategy
Impact Mapping
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLowMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min1-4 Wochen45-90 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-86-30 Experten2-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery OptionsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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