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Criterion
Paper illustration of a branching impact map with a Why goal at the root, actor circles, How behavior changes and What options.
Product Strategy
Impact Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min45-90 min20–45 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-82-8Small cross-functional group2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery OptionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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