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Criterion
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Paper illustration for PDCA Cycle.
Operations
PDCA Cycle
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
15-60 min1 h bis mehrere Wochen15-45 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-91-81-82-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity CaveatsPDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard ChangePERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortAgile
Continuous improvementLeanExperiments
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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