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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-60 min | 45-60 min | 20-45 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-10 | 2-8 | 1-10 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |