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| Criterion |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 1-10 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | RationaleKnowledgeDecision | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |