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Criterion
How Might We
Innovation
How Might We
Paper illustration of Futures Wheel with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Futures Wheel
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Purposedifferent
With a stuck problem carrying many implicit assumptions, the method translates observations into open, workable questions. It sharpens the problem frame without pre-thinking the solution, turning frustration or fuzziness into a search space with clear direction.The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
30–45 min60-120 min2-6 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
1-103-103-83-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
HMW Questions, Challenge Framing, Idea PromptsFutures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic SignalsCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions
Tagsno overlap
FramingOpportunityIdeationQuestions
ForesightSystems thinkingSignals
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
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