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Criterion
How Might We
Innovation
How Might We
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
With a stuck problem carrying many implicit assumptions, the method translates observations into open, workable questions. It sharpens the problem frame without pre-thinking the solution, turning frustration or fuzziness into a search space with clear direction.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
30–45 min45-90 min20–45 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-102-8Small cross-functional group2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
HMW Questions, Challenge Framing, Idea PromptsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
FramingOpportunityIdeationQuestions
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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