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Criterion
How Might We
Innovation
How Might We
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
With a stuck problem carrying many implicit assumptions, the method translates observations into open, workable questions. It sharpens the problem frame without pre-thinking the solution, turning frustration or fuzziness into a search space with clear direction.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
30–45 min45-90 min1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-102-8Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
HMW Questions, Challenge Framing, Idea PromptsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning DecisionAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
FramingOpportunityIdeationQuestions
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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