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Criterion
Paper illustration of Hooked Model with its method-specific working model.
Growth
Hooked Model
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMediumLow
Timedifferent
Multiple workshops over several weeks1-4 Wochen1-2 Wochen pro Iteration45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-86-30 Experten2-62-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Hooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics checkExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results ReportAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
GrowthBehaviorRetention
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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