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Criterion
Paper notes move from an inbox to action, project and calendar collections.
Operations
Getting Things Done
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
With many open commitments and ideas in daily life, a reliable external storage system emerges. The method relieves the mind so priority and context don't have to compete in memory.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-2 h Setup, laufend20–45 min1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Action Lists, Project List, Review RoutineRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
ProductivityPlanningTasksExecution
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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