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Criterion
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Paper illustration for NoEstimates.
Agile
NoEstimates
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Purposedifferent
When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
30-120 minlaufend15-45 min10-30 min je Item
Participantsdifferent
2-62-121-81-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Observation Notes, Improvement IdeasThroughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing RulesPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
LeanObservationProcessOperations
EstimationForecastingFlow
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
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