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| Criterion |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 10-30 min je Item | 20–45 min | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |