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Criterion
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
Halber Tag10-20 min daily45-90 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
5-2012-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Simulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
ResilienceOperationsIncident
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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