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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Half day | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-12 Experten | 3-12 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability |