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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Half day | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-12 Experten | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |