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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 Wochen | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-12 Experten | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy |