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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-10 | 6-30 Experten | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |