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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-3 h | 2-6 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 4-10 | 3-8 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |