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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Business Strategy Business Model Canvas |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | The Business Model Canvas condenses a business model to its key building blocks and assumptions. It makes variants quickly comparable and reveals gaps before validation or implementation begins. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | Half day | 1-2 h | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Business Model Canvas, Assumption List, Business Hypotheses | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | Business modelStrategyValueInnovation | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight |