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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 4-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |